Műhelytanulmányok
- Pető Rita, Balázs Reizer
- 1
How does foreign direct investment impact wages and the task content of jobs? Using linked employer-employee data from Hungary and an event study approach we show that FDI increases the returns to abstract tasks, while it does not affect the returns to routine and face-to-face tasks. This finding appears to be driven by skill-biased changes in technology, as acquired firms innovate more with their foreign partners, import more machines and improve product quality. These suggest that FDI-induced technological change is an important driver of growing inequality in developing countries.
Pető Rita
MKE-WP-39199
- Pető Rita
- 2
This paper examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) influences the gender wage gap, using matched employer-employee data from Hungary between 2003 and 2017. I find that foreign-owned firms exhibit a 4 percentage points larger within-firm gender wage gap compared to domestic firms, even after accounting for worker- and firm-level selection. This gap persists even after foreign capital withdraws, suggesting a lasting structural imprint. Furthermore, the results highlight the role of cultural norms: subsidiaries of companies from countries with more favorable economic opportunities for women show significantly smaller gender disparities. Greater wage-setting flexibility is also associated with a wider gender wage gap, especially among new hires. Overall, the study demonstrates that foreign ownership not only affects wage structures through economic channels but also transmits cultural norms that shape gender inequality in the labor market.
Bisztray Márta, Muraközy Balázs, Pető Rita
MKE-WP-39196
- Bisztray Márta, Muraközy Balázs, Pető Rita
- Alkalmazott közgazdaságtan, Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 2
More than one-third of people in the EU report having a chronic health condition (CHC), and their share in the workforce is expected to rise. Using unique linked employer-employee administrative data from Hungary—combining detailed healthcare utilization with wage records—we identify workers with CHCs and analyze their labor market outcomes with a focus on the role of firms. Men and women with CHCs are 7 and 14 percentage points less likely to be employed, respectively. Among the employed, we find wage penalties of 5.8% for men and 13.9% for women. Differences in firm-specific pay premiums account for 12% of the penalty for men and 23% for women. Event-study models with worker fixed effects show persistent wage losses following CHC onset—4% for men and 1.5% for women—of which 0.2–0.5 percentage points are due to moving to lower-paying firms, with the rest likely reflecting missed promotions and raises. We then look at the role of firm ownership, foreign ownership being a strong proxy for technology, and find that 20% of the penalty is accounted for by this firm characteristic, 60-70% of which results from worker sorting and the remaining from CHC workers benefiting less from the higher wage premium of foreign-owned firms. These numbers imply that the fall in wages between the ages 40 and 60 would be 10-20% lower had there been no CHC penalty, about 20% of which is attributable to the presence of foreign-owned firms.
- Rui Albuquerque, Adam Zawadowski
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan, Pénzügyek
- 1
A maturity wall occurs in private credit funds when the fund reaches its maturity date, where it can no longer roll over its loans. Unlike banks, which are not bound by a maturity wall, private credit funds can better incentivize borrowers, albeit at the cost of inefficient liquidation. Using a model, we show that private credit not only expands access to credit but also takes business away from banks. By stealing business, it removes riskier loans from banks' balance sheets. At the aggregate level, expected payoff increases but tail events become more severe due to the potential for excessive liquidation by private creditors.
- László Csató, Dóra Gréta Petróczy
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 1
National teams from different continents can play against each other only in afew sports competitions. Therefore, a reasonable aim is maximising the number of intercontinental games in world cups, as done in basketball and football, in contrast to handball and volleyball. However, this objective requires additional draw constraints that imply the violation of equal treatment. In addition, the standard draw mechanism is non-uniformly distributed on the set of valid assignments, which may lead to further distortions. Our paper analyses this novel trade-off between attractiveness and fairness through the example of the 2025 World Men's Handball Championship. We introduce a measure of inequality, which enables considering 32 sets of reasonable geographical restrictions to determine the Pareto frontier. The proposed methodology can be used by policy-makers to select the optimal set of draw constraints.
László Csató, András Gyimesi
MKE-WP-39162
- László Csató, András Gyimesi
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 2
A match played in a sports tournament can be called stakeless if at least one team is indifferent to its outcome because it already has qualified or has been eliminated. Such a game threatens fairness since teams may not exert full effort without incentives. This paper suggests a novel classification for stakeless matches according to their expected outcome: they are more costly if the indifferent team is more likely to win by playing honestly. Our approach is illustrated with the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the first edition of the competition with 48 teams. We propose a novel format based on imbalanced groups, which drastically reduces the probability of stakeless matches played by the strongest teams according to Monte Carlo simulations. The new design also increases the uncertainty of match outcomes and requires fewer matches. Governing bodies in sports are encouraged to consider our innovative idea in order to enhance the competitiveness of their tournaments.
- Barna Bakó, Antal Ertl, Hubert János Kiss
- Elmélet és kísérleti közgazdaságtan
- 3
This study investigates how present bias affects memory accuracy regarding earlier decisions in intertemporal decision-making. In a classroom experiment with university students, participants made choices between smaller, immediate rewards and larger, delayed rewards over two visits, followed by a third visit where they were asked to recall their prior decisions. Descriptive statistics reveal that participants with present bias exhibit lower memory accuracy compared to time-consistent peers, particularly in scenarios involving immediate rewards. Regression analysis confirms that motivated misremembering—recalling past decisions as more virtuous than they actually were—explains the reduced memory accuracy
- Hajdu Tamás
- Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 1
This paper examines the effect of temperature on emergency department (ED) visits using administrative data covering 50% of the Hungarian population and 3.52 million ED visits from 2009 to 2017. The results show that ED visit rates increase when average temperatures exceed 10°C, primarily driven by mild cases that do not result in hospitalization. Higher humidity amplifies the heat effect, which is also stronger following consecutive hot days. The findings further indicate that the impacts of climate change – both present and future – are substantial. Between 2009 and 2017, 0.66% of the ED visits were attributed to temperature changes relative to the period 1950–1989. Furthermore, by the 2050s, compared to the first 15 years of the 21st century, the annual ED visit rate is projected to rise by 1.24%–1.70%, depending on the climate scenario. A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effects of high temperatures and the future impacts of climate change are disproportionately greater in lower-income districts, areas with lower general practitioner density, and among younger adults.
Mate Kormos, Robert P. Lieli, Martin Huber
MKE-WP-39086
- Mate Kormos, Robert P. Lieli, Martin Huber
- Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 2
We study causal inference in randomized experiments (or quasi-experiments) following a
2 x 2 factorial design. There are two treatments, denoted A and B, and units are randomly
assigned to one of four categories: treatment A alone, treatment B alone, joint treatment, or
none. Allowing for endogenous non-compliance with the two binary instruments representing
the intended assignment, as well as unrestricted interference across the two treatments, we
derive the causal interpretation of various instrumental variable estimands under more general
compliance conditions than in the literature. In general, if treatment takeup is driven by
both instruments for some units, it becomes difficult to separate treatment interaction from
treatment effect heterogeneity. We provide auxiliary conditions and various bounding strategies
that may help zero in on causally interesting parameters. As an empirical illustration, we
apply our results to a program randomly offering two different treatments, namely tutoring
and financial incentives, to first year college students, in order to assess the treatments' effects
on academic performance.
Keywords: causal inference, interaction, instrumental variables, non-compliance
JEL codes: C22, C26, C90
Bíró Anikó, Elek Péter, Prinz Dániel, Sándor László
MKE-WP-39077
- Bíró Anikó, Elek Péter, Prinz Dániel, Sándor László
- Emberi erőforrás tanulmányok
- 1
This paper studies tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link in the context of maternity benefits in Hungary. Earnings and employment patterns suggest pre-pregnancy underreporting, followed by formalization of some earnings and employment during pregnancy to increase benefits. Reported earnings in small, domestic, and less productive firms bunch at the minimum wage before pregnancy and the benefit-maximizing threshold during pregnancy. Using a policy reform, the paper shows that the size of the reporting response tracks changing reporting incentives. Increases in pre-childbirth reported earnings are partially sticky after maternity leave. The results indicate that linking benefits to contributions can reduce tax evasion and improve formalization.