Műhelytanulmányok

Roberto Burguet an József Sákovics

MKE-WP-39220

We study lobbying as a seller's ploy to affect the buyer's learning process about the value of a singular good that he wishes to procure. In particular, we argue that a lobbying seller strategically distorts "soft" rather than private information. Our innovation is to model this as the seller "jamming" the buyer's signal -- not just by shifting its mean, but -- by skewing (increasing the third moment of) its distribution. An unobserved marginal increase in lobbying effort expands demand, thus, unless too expensive, the seller always lobbies, no matter how suspicious the buyer is. Crucially, even when correctly anticipated (in equilibrium), lobbying increases the price elasticity of the buyer's demand. This leads to a lower equilibrium price and increased efficiency. In the (skew-)normal learning model, in equilibrium the seller gains, the buyer loses as a result of lobbying. Nonetheless, the information gleaned during the process keeps the buyer from refusing to engage in it.

Adam Szeidl, Ferenc Szucs

MKE-WP-39212

We model populism as the dissemination of a false “alternative reality”, according to which the intellectual elite conspires against the populist for purely ideological reasons. If enough voters are receptive to it, this alternative reality—by discrediting the elite’s truthful message— reduces political accountability. Elite criticism, because it is more consistent with the alternative reality, strengthens receptive voters’ support for the populist. Alternative realities are endogenously conspiratorial to resist evidence better. Populists, to leverage or strengthen beliefs in the alternative reality, enact harmful policies that may disproportionately harm the non-elite. These results explain previously unexplained facts about populism.

This paper investigates whether adolescents’ core self-evaluation (CSE), a broad personality construct capturing individuals’ appraisal of their self-worth and capabilities, predicts interpersonal trust decades later. Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the 1970 British Cohort Study, we construct CSE measures from self-esteem, locus of control, and emotional stability at age 16 and examine their relationship with trust reported at ages 34, 42, 46, and 50. We find that higher adolescent CSE is consistently and positively associated with greater trust in others later in life. Each component of CSE independently predicts trust, and the composite index shows robust associations even after controlling for demographic background, cognitive skills, and early mental health. The estimated associations are comparable in magnitude to those between trust and cognitive ability. They are stable over time and are not explained by selection to the sample, educational attainment, labor market success, or family formation. Importantly, we find that the relative importance of CSE components varies by adolescent mental health: locus of control is more predictive among individuals with better mental health, while emotional stability plays a stronger role among those with elevated depressive symptoms. These findings underscore the long-term social relevance of core self-evaluation and highlight its importance as a psychological antecedent of trust.

Pető Rita, Balázs Reizer

MKE-WP-39204

How does foreign direct investment impact wages and the task content of jobs? Using linked employer-employee data from Hungary and an event study approach we show that FDI increases the returns to abstract tasks, while it does not affect the returns to routine and face-to-face tasks. This finding appears to be driven by skill-biased changes in technology, as acquired firms innovate more with their foreign partners, import more machines and improve product quality. These suggest that FDI-induced technological change is an important driver of growing inequality in developing countries.

This paper examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) influences the gender wage gap, using matched employer-employee data from Hungary between 2003 and 2017. I find that foreign-owned firms exhibit a 4 percentage points larger within-firm gender wage gap compared to domestic firms, even after accounting for worker- and firm-level selection. This gap persists even after foreign capital withdraws, suggesting a lasting structural imprint. Furthermore, the results highlight the role of cultural norms: subsidiaries of companies from countries with more favorable economic opportunities for women show significantly smaller gender disparities. Greater wage-setting flexibility is also associated with a wider gender wage gap, especially among new hires. Overall, the study demonstrates that foreign ownership not only affects wage structures through economic channels but also transmits cultural norms that shape gender inequality in the labor market.

Bisztray Márta, Muraközy Balázs, Pető Rita

MKE-WP-39196

More than one-third of people in the EU report having a chronic health condition (CHC), and their share in the workforce is expected to rise. Using unique linked employer-employee administrative data from Hungary—combining detailed healthcare utilization with wage records—we identify workers with CHCs and analyze their labor market outcomes with a focus on the role of firms. Men and women with CHCs are 7 and 14 percentage points less likely to be employed, respectively. Among the employed, we find wage penalties of 5.8% for men and 13.9% for women. Differences in firm-specific pay premiums account for 12% of the penalty for men and 23% for women. Event-study models with worker fixed effects show persistent wage losses following CHC onset—4% for men and 1.5% for women—of which 0.2–0.5 percentage points are due to moving to lower-paying firms, with the rest likely reflecting missed promotions and raises. We then look at the role of firm ownership, foreign ownership being a strong proxy for technology, and find that 20% of the penalty is accounted for by this firm characteristic, 60-70% of which results from worker sorting and the remaining from CHC workers benefiting less from the higher wage premium of foreign-owned firms. These numbers imply that the fall in wages between the ages 40 and 60 would be 10-20% lower had there been no CHC penalty, about 20% of which is attributable to the presence of foreign-owned firms.

Rui Albuquerque, Adam Zawadowski

MKE-WP-39183

A maturity wall occurs in private credit funds when the fund reaches its maturity date, where it can no longer roll over its loans. Unlike banks, which are not bound by a maturity wall, private credit funds can better incentivize borrowers, albeit at the cost of inefficient liquidation. Using a model, we show that private credit not only expands access to credit but also takes business away from banks. By stealing business, it removes riskier loans from banks' balance sheets. At the aggregate level, expected payoff increases but tail events become more severe due to the potential for excessive liquidation by private creditors.

László Csató, Dóra Gréta Petróczy

MKE-WP-39166

National teams from different continents can play against each other only in afew sports competitions. Therefore, a reasonable aim is maximising the number of intercontinental games in world cups, as done in basketball and football, in contrast to handball and volleyball. However, this objective requires additional draw constraints that imply the violation of equal treatment. In addition, the standard draw mechanism is non-uniformly distributed on the set of valid assignments, which may lead to further distortions. Our paper analyses this novel trade-off between attractiveness and fairness through the example of the 2025 World Men's Handball Championship. We introduce a measure of inequality, which enables considering 32 sets of reasonable geographical restrictions to determine the Pareto frontier. The proposed methodology can be used by policy-makers to select the optimal set of draw constraints.

A match played in a sports tournament can be called stakeless if at least one team is indifferent to its outcome because it already has qualified or has been eliminated. Such a game threatens fairness since teams may not exert full effort without incentives. This paper suggests a novel classification for stakeless matches according to their expected outcome: they are more costly if the indifferent team is more likely to win by playing honestly. Our approach is illustrated with the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the first edition of the competition with 48 teams. We propose a novel format based on imbalanced groups, which drastically reduces the probability of stakeless matches played by the strongest teams according to Monte Carlo simulations. The new design also increases the uncertainty of match outcomes and requires fewer matches. Governing bodies in sports are encouraged to consider our innovative idea in order to enhance the competitiveness of their tournaments.

Barna Bakó, Antal Ertl, Hubert János Kiss

MKE-WP-39149

This study investigates how present bias affects memory accuracy regarding earlier decisions in intertemporal decision-making. In a classroom experiment with university students, participants made choices between smaller, immediate rewards and larger, delayed rewards over two visits, followed by a third visit where they were asked to recall their prior decisions. Descriptive statistics reveal that participants with present bias exhibit lower memory accuracy compared to time-consistent peers, particularly in scenarios involving immediate rewards. Regression analysis confirms that motivated misremembering—recalling past decisions as more virtuous than they actually were—explains the reduced memory accuracy

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